Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
April 27, 2016 (updated May 26)

There were three exit polls yesterday in CT, MD, PA.  Sanders exit poll share declined from the poll to the vote in two of the three elections. As usual, the exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote.

The difference between Clinton’s  adjusted exit poll and recorded share were:
CT .01%;  MD 0.10%;  PA -.17%

In 21 of 23 primaries, Sander’s exit poll share exceeded his recorded share.
The probability of this being due to chance:
P = 1 in 30,000 = binomdist(2,23,0.5,true)

In 9 of 23 primaries, Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share by more than the margin of error. The probability of this being due to chance:
P = 1 in 441 million = =1-BINOMDIST( 8,23, 0.025, true)

The pollsters ALWAYS force the unadjusted exit polls to match the recorded vote. Where are the unadjusted exit polls?  The…

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